tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post960641955836740703..comments2024-03-18T10:18:19.736-04:00Comments on Musings on Markets: Twitter IPO: Why a good trade be a bad investment (or vice versa)? Aswath Damodaranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12021594649672906878noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-90547378833766079922016-02-16T10:02:04.761-05:002016-02-16T10:02:04.761-05:00Great Post! Twitter market cap is now nearing $ 10...Great Post! Twitter market cap is now nearing $ 10 billion, perhaps price converging to value and it did not take much long, just 2.5 years. Watch out as it may overshoot as now it would be driven by mood. For an investor to be successful, i feel patience and conviction in one's decisions are two key behaviours traits. In addition, if you are lazy in markets, it may further help as you won't get distracted when prices frequently dance up and down. Jeetendra Singhnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-7683431864079863882016-02-16T07:33:07.540-05:002016-02-16T07:33:07.540-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07358845929229491093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-21351297791490924272015-03-30T13:53:39.914-04:002015-03-30T13:53:39.914-04:00This is the perfect blog for anyone who wants to k...This is the perfect blog for anyone who wants to know about this topic. You know so much its almost hard to argue with you. You definitely put a new spin on a subject that’s been written about for years. Great stuff, just great!timing stock markethttp://www.stocktrendinvesting.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-42982939113277127242014-02-24T02:30:42.840-05:002014-02-24T02:30:42.840-05:00The Stock market trading can either lead to huge p...The Stock market trading can either lead to huge profit or even can turn anyone to heavy losses, Thus it is really important to stick with various stock market trading tips . <br />Stock Trading Tipshttp://blog.epicresearch.co/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-46537297509377202432013-11-18T06:20:47.368-05:002013-11-18T06:20:47.368-05:00I agree with what you have to say..... learn algor...I agree with what you have to say..... <a href="http://www.quantinsti.com/blog/index.php/learn-algorithmic-trading/" rel="nofollow">learn algorithmic trading courses</a><br />QuantInstihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00999500061277972141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-33359907606946093642013-10-17T22:22:12.114-04:002013-10-17T22:22:12.114-04:00Hi Guys, I found a Website to perform Discounted C...Hi Guys, I found a Website to perform Discounted Cash Flow Model calculations, no need to do those calculations on the Excel file anymore, check it out:<br />http://turnkeyanalyst.com/2013/09/19/cloud-based-discounted-cash-flow-analysis-tool/ Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-8143954643117217322013-10-16T22:17:43.135-04:002013-10-16T22:17:43.135-04:00Professor, would you therefore say 'trading...Professor, would you therefore say 'trading' is synonymous to 'technical analysis,' whereas 'investing' is 'fundamental analysis?'Leonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169679950187800435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-46528394286320444412013-10-14T07:33:16.927-04:002013-10-14T07:33:16.927-04:00Prof,
Can you throw some color on how you decide ...Prof,<br /><br />Can you throw some color on how you decide on the sales to capital ratio? this is one number in the assumptions that constantly stumps me.fidodidohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01882462596576867277noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-83148602002416492932013-10-13T13:46:15.862-04:002013-10-13T13:46:15.862-04:00Thanks, it is working now. I could download the we...Thanks, it is working now. I could download the webcast and other documents.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-11791316777992723982013-10-13T12:55:45.497-04:002013-10-13T12:55:45.497-04:00Professor i remember you valuation piece on facebo...Professor i remember you valuation piece on facebook too... At that time too you were of the opinion that the stock would be over priced. what is your view now? And valuing such stocks twitter and FB can be shooting in the dark as the opportunity market can be very different to what one thinks now as internet as a medium for the next generations could be very different in usage terms than what it is now! And then maybe FB and twitter might be the biggest things around... nishanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01551154323588285566noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-23020951321787108562013-10-13T12:50:14.023-04:002013-10-13T12:50:14.023-04:00I just tried the webcast and it seems to work. If ...I just tried the webcast and it seems to work. If you are using Google Chrome, switch to a different browser. It may be browser related.Aswath Damodaranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12021594649672906878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-79638937032398104372013-10-13T12:48:17.631-04:002013-10-13T12:48:17.631-04:00Twitter is a terrible stock pick. Most new public ...Twitter is a terrible stock pick. Most new public offerings make terrible investments. These stocks are usually brought to market at a huge premium to the real value of the enterprise.QUALITY STOCKS BELOW 5 DOLLARShttp://www.manhattancalumet.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-36913501038124846982013-10-13T02:07:57.796-04:002013-10-13T02:07:57.796-04:00Your terminal value webcast documents are not down...Your terminal value webcast documents are not downloadable. Shows error.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-87323006886713093492013-10-12T07:55:59.122-04:002013-10-12T07:55:59.122-04:00Fabian,
You are right. You can actually win very i...Fabian,<br />You are right. You can actually win very infrequently, but if you win big, you can still walk away a winner. Aswath Damodaranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12021594649672906878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-15857212472080828742013-10-12T05:35:46.528-04:002013-10-12T05:35:46.528-04:00I am not a trader, but in order to "win the g...I am not a trader, but in order to "win the game", you don't need to be right more often than wrong. You just need to make more money when you are right than you lose when you are wrong.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17289283859122322119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-61643705156283565422013-10-12T05:33:04.547-04:002013-10-12T05:33:04.547-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17289283859122322119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-68749699586706961452013-10-11T19:09:35.617-04:002013-10-11T19:09:35.617-04:00hi professor
excellent post as always.
it appear...hi professor<br /><br />excellent post as always.<br /><br />it appears you use a discount rate of 11.2 pct to value twitter at 10b. so, even if twitter is priced at say 12b does that really mean that it should be avoided (if a value investor)? cant it simply mean the expected return is not 11 pct but is some lower return (you can backsolve for this in your spreadsheet). say that return is 9 pct - if that is still attractive to a value investor isnt that a<br />reason to buy twitter even though technically "over valued"? (this assumes of course the cashflow estimates and all else<br />are the same - just the expected return/discount rate is lower). drctypeahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08939879586297863619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-73420515367751477482013-10-11T09:52:02.147-04:002013-10-11T09:52:02.147-04:00As r2 increases, I think investors are affected mo...As r2 increases, I think investors are affected more about macro events than before, making the mood of the market a greater factor even if one is an investor. Game1980https://www.blogger.com/profile/18245239114843702016noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-59986028491070286932013-10-11T09:50:48.281-04:002013-10-11T09:50:48.281-04:00As to the last comment, exactly. To be a successfu...As to the last comment, exactly. To be a successful value investor, you have to understand how the price game works. The notion that if you buy an under valued company, the returns will come is dangerous and sometimes delusional.Aswath Damodaranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12021594649672906878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-38346958298195669432013-10-11T08:52:57.558-04:002013-10-11T08:52:57.558-04:00It would seem that understanding the conditions ne...It would seem that understanding the conditions necessary to cause price and value to converge are nearly as important as the skills necessary to establish value. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-55753269300261306412013-10-11T00:46:37.383-04:002013-10-11T00:46:37.383-04:00Price is what you see, but value is what you feel....Price is what you see, but value is what you feel.<br />We see price but it is an illusion. We do not see value but it is real.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-83666491959856547362013-10-10T16:51:55.813-04:002013-10-10T16:51:55.813-04:00Vey well explained post sir...I.am myself a day tr...Vey well explained post sir...I.am myself a day trader in US cash markets an completely understand how irrational pricing sometimes give me best of trades and profits Tusheet Sarafnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-27261285642640625652013-10-10T16:24:31.073-04:002013-10-10T16:24:31.073-04:00If trading worked at making me money, I would trad...If trading worked at making me money, I would trade. It does not work for me. If it does work for someone else, no matter what skill set they bring to the table, I won't begrudge them their profits.Aswath Damodaranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12021594649672906878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-63330463655415380332013-10-10T15:24:36.934-04:002013-10-10T15:24:36.934-04:00You are spot on when talking about trading and inv...You are spot on when talking about trading and investing as two different things. <br /><br />However, I consider trading as speculation. Nothing wrong about that, though, as it is not illegal.<br /><br />While there is a basis (and this could be right or wrong) for investing (valuation), trading is based on momentum and charts, which I don't think is a fair basis. <br /><br />Momentum and charting direction is like gauging the moods of the market. <br /><br />I am not saying this because my psyche is investing. How can one guess what the next person is going to do just by checking charts?<br /><br />A trader's footing is on the wrong side - wants to make money quickly outwitting the next person - however much traders are required for investors to make money as you correctly put it, they are only guessing without a basis.<br /><br />The quicker and the luckier make money. History backs when we say that a very low percentage of traders do well regularly. <br /><br />But, heck! we want them and we want them badly to set the (wrong) prices.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com