tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post1699036527525756756..comments2024-03-29T07:41:47.433-04:00Comments on Musings on Markets: January 2017 Data Update 2: The Resilience of US Equities!Aswath Damodaranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12021594649672906878noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-27798440430874390202017-02-09T07:24:37.412-05:002017-02-09T07:24:37.412-05:00Dear Professor Damodaran,
I have had a look at yo...Dear Professor Damodaran,<br /><br />I have had a look at your latest implied ERP calculation for the month of February and it's puzzling to me why trailing earnings, dividends, and buybacks (in index units) are computed using seemingly outdated 'unit adjuster' as of September-end, instead of December-end, given quarterly updates (that data is provided on the worksheet named "Buyback & Dividend Computation").<br /><br />On a side note, it is also not clear why there is a difference between market cap values on worksheets "Buyback & Dividend Computation" and "S&P500 monthly data (CapIQ)" for the year, say, 2015.<br /><br />I would greatly appreciate if you could clarify these points.<br /><br />Kind regards,<br /><br />Tim Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16231184752945989649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8152901575140311047.post-8993219980870893502017-01-14T08:00:18.813-05:002017-01-14T08:00:18.813-05:00Higher interest rates driven by higher growth / hi...Higher interest rates driven by higher growth / higher inflation sounds like it is a given whether you read mainstream financial media or Professor Damodaran's blog. I don't think there is any reason to expect higher growth, higher inflation, or higher interest rates. There is no policy motion in place that would drive up middle class incomes enough to generate any of the above. In fact, the only policy motions in place are the Fed increasing short term rates and the elimination of Obamacare both of which will have the opposite impact on middle class incomes / balance sheets. <br /><br />The one Trump policy that could have a positive effect in this regard is his infrastructure spending plan (depending on how it would be implemented). Infrastructure spending was in doubt due to Congress while Trump was in the glow of victory. As Trump stumbles out of the gate, Congress becomes stronger and infrastructure spending becomes less likely. I expect interest rates to go down from here.Dajo9https://www.blogger.com/profile/06951721841447196001noreply@blogger.com