Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Apple: Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em..

In my last post on Apple, I made two confessions. The first was that I have loved the company’s products for almost three decades and am thus incapable of being unbiased in assessing value or marking judgments on its quality as a business. The other was that I am an Apple stockholder of long standing. At least one of these statements is no longer true, since I did sell my holdings of Apple in the last week. Since the issue of whether Apple is going to $1000/share or to $ 200/share still seems to actively debated, I wanted to explain why I chose to fold, rather than hold.

Before I list my reasons for selling, it is important that I list the justifications that I will not offer:
  1. I don’t consider Apple to be over valued: I did not sell Apple because I consider it an overvalued stock. In fact, the discounted cash flow valuation that I had my last post, where I valued Apple at $710/share still holds. The only difference is that Apple, which was under valued by about 23% when I looked at it a few weeks ago (at $545/share) looks a little less under valued today (about 13% at $620/share). 
  2. I don't buy the signaling stories: In the weeks since my post, Apple did decide to return a modest portion of their mammoth cash balance to stockholders, partly in a stock buyback of $10 billion and partly in the form of a regular dividend of about $10/share (which works out to a dividend of about $ 10 billion at least for this year). There are some long time Apple watchers who have viewed these actions as signals that the company no longer has the investment opportunities that it did and thus as a negative. I don’t buy this signaling story. The rate at which cash has been accumulating in Apple is evidence aplenty that they don’t have enough investment opportunities to invest this cash in. Thus, their decision to return some of that cash reinforces what is already obvious. 
So, why did I choose to sell Apple? It is because my fellow-stockholders in the company are making me a little nervous. As I look at Apple's current stockholders, here is what I see:
  1. Apple has become a momentum play: Much as I would like to believe that everyone who has been jumping on the Apple bandwagon in the last year is investing for the right reason, i.e.. because they see good value in the stock, Apple has become the ultimate momentum play. In effect, the biggest reason Apple’s stock price is going up now is because it has gone up in the recent past, not because of any news stories or information coming about about the company. Don’t get me wrong. Momentum is a powerful force in markets and I had a post on the power of momentum investing strategies. As an intrinsic value investor, though, it is not only not my cup of tea but it also delinks price from intrinsic value; put differently, I don't have a competitive edge in the momentum game. 
  2. Institutional favorite: Apple is now an institutional favorite, taking center place in almost every large institutional investor’s portfolio. Note that this is related to the first point, since institutional investors are creatures of momentum, buying stocks that have gone up and dumping stocks that have dropped. So, what is my problem with this? First, institutional investors are a fickle crowd, who can quickly turn on stocks that they love.... Second, as a contrarian, my instinct tells me that if institutional investors collectively think that a stock is good, it is time for me to reassess. 
  3. Mixed Dividend Clientele: Apple was a momentum stock and an institutional favorite the last time I posted as well.  For me, the tipping point was Apple’s decision to institute a dividend. Can they afford it? Of course, but I think it was a tactical error at two levels. First, it represents a break from its recent and mostly successful past. For  the last 15 years, Apple has been held by stockholders who were comfortable with its policy of no dividends and high quality growth, and were willing to claim their rewards in price appreciation. By paying a dividend, Apple has opened it doors to a “dividend seeking” clientele, who not only want to see dividends paid out but want to see growth in these dividends. In fact, many of the investors who are new to Apple stock in the last few months are from this group. The clash between what the “old price appreciation” stockholders in Apple think is best and what the “new dividend” stockholders is not significant at the moment, but it will rise to the surface when things don’t go well. We are a bad earnings report or a botched new product away from a full fledged battle between these groups, with Apple's managers in the middle. Second, in my earlier post, I noted  that it would be in Apple’s best interests to put this cash issue behind them decisively by announcing a shockingly large buyback and getting back to business. In many ways, what Apple has done (in announcing a small stock buyback and a dividend) will ensure that the cash question will be a major distraction for the long term. 
Put in blunt terms, I am selling my Apple stock because I am worried about my fellow travelers in the stock. It is not that I have a problem with any of these groups individually, since I invest in other stocks where I co-exist with momentum investors, institutional investors, growth seeking investors or dividend seeking investors. In Apple, though, they are all in the mix, with different and contradictory views about what makes the company a good investment and what it should do, as a company, going forward. Each group is expecting its best case outcome: continuing price increases for the momentum group and institutional investors, high growth and a stream of new products for the price appreciation crowd and growing dividends for the dividend seekers. Perhaps, Apple can be all things to all these investors, but that is asking for a lot, and perhaps the impossible.

I bought my Apple shares in April 1997 and I have the price appreciation (and a potential tax bill) to show for it. It has been a wonderful ride, but as the old country song would put it, I have to know "when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em”, and my gut (strange thing for an intrinsic value guy to admit to..) tells me that it is time for me to move on. Could I regret this decision? I hope I do. Nothing would make me happier than see the stock goes to new heights and have Apple become the first trillion-dollar market cap company. I love the company and its products far more than I care about any bruising my ego and pocketbook may take.

140 comments:

  1. It's ironical that just yesterday when i was reading an article on Bloomberg "Apple Fever Prompts Predictions of $1 Trillion market cap". I had a similar feeling that this was putting too much pressure on the management because two quarters of missed earnings could do a lot of damage to Apple given the sky high expectations. Although i must admit i would not have been able to sell out if i held the stock since 1997, its almost impossible not to get carried away with the momentum. But the stock chart does look like a bubble in the last 2 years, sure earnings have exceeded all calculations.

    However, Apple is a product company and to give the same relative valuation such 20 PE for stable revenue companies defies logic given product misses are not difficult to happen in Technology. Nokia, RIM and Sony are recent examples. To me Apple is what Sony was in the 1980's. Can they keep innovating better than the competition for ever, sure they can but history tells us, newer technology is on the anvil when one Company is making so much money. This has happend all the time, money is the biggest innovation puller.

    Although i do wish Apple should continue to lead given that Steve Jobs looked at this Company from a different light than just profitibility, but will it only time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
  2. IMHO, the price of apple shares was drwan dueto the health and expected death of steve jobs. there was the angst that apple would crash immediately after the dead of steve. now happened the opposite, profits are up up to the sky, apple has new products for at least 3 years.
    the share got the momentum due to a ridiculous low share price in the last 3 years (per of 9 with discounted cash) and that apple is still in live without steve. the angst is gone.
    the problem apple is possible facing with is the margin, it is not a recent problem, but the margin could decrease over a couple of years. they have a big margin because they are the best, the most innovative company.
    you should'nt regret to sell apple. you made a nice profit, that's the point.

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. Congrats for a huge profit. Bird in hand is worth two in bush. I just have few questions.You bought apple in April 97, what was the thought process in taking decision of buying at that particular time? What was the feeling during tech bubble? What was feeling when bubble popped? Same question for 2008 crisis. I am asking these questions because holding on to a stock for such a long duration requires 'keeping emotion in check'. I am trying to understand the thought process. On a side note you can still use LEAPS options to buy upside.

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  5. I'd suspect that the changing tax regime have something to do with your sale. Current capital gains are 15%, and will expire at the end of the year, being replaced with a 25% capital gains tax on January 1. (The extra 5% above what is advertised is explained here: http://dmarron.com/2012/01/24/capital-gains-taxes-are-going-up/). Regardless of your valuation of the company, I think it is a prudent strategy to exploit what may be the lowest capital gains tax for the rest of our lifetimes and then potentially reinvest with a higher cost basis.

    ReplyDelete
  6. So you have held since 1997 and now you're going to sell because AAPL has become "a momentum play"? lol Congrats on the money you made, but your reasons are very strange based on the fact that you have held this long. No news coming out? What about iphone5 coming out in June? Dividend of $10/share brings value to you the shareholder. I think you bailed too soon! You could have just taken some off the table, but kept a long position. Silly you!

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  7. Why the heck would you sell now unless it was for tax purposes? The logical thing to do is put a stop order in to catch it if it falls.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Question: why not simply set a stop order?

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  9. Anonymous,
    As I said, nothing would make me happier than see other people make money of Apple stock. I did not make this decision abruptly or idly and I did consider two options: (a) put a stop loss and (b) put put options. The problem I had with the stop loss is for it to effectively be an alternative to selling, the price would have to be set at around 500. There is enough volatility in this stock that setting a stop loss at 575. for instance, would have been ineffective. On the put options, I looked at the implied volatility and the price of buying seems way too high right now.

    So, silly me.. I guess... I may be leaving profits on the table but I also remember the Wall Street adage: Be a bull or a bear but never a pig...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Aswath,

    I too think these are very strange reasons for a so-called intrinsic value investor to sell a stock.

    An intrinsic value investor either never sells a stock (Buffett famously held Coke through the general Y2K P/E mania, even though it is only now beginning to reach a reasonable valuation again), or sells when it gets well above one's best estimate of its intrinsic value.

    I think you will come to regret this sale, not for any reason you allude to in your post, but simply because you did not follow your rules. Your post is eloquent, but at the end of the day, you laid aside intrinsic valuation principles, and you did not sell because your thesis was blown, you sold for eloquently stated emotional reasons. Intrinsic value investors do not sell because of gut instincts. That failure to abide by rules will cause you regret. That and the tax bill (assuming this was not in an IRA or some other tax-advantaged vehicle). All best though.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I enjoy your posts Aswath, but I have to admit, I'm a bit confused on selling now, especially since you've held since 1997 (jealous :) ).

    To me, this company is firing on all cylinders, and is undervalued. You don't see that very often for a company this large. And they gained market share towards the end of last year. Given I think some of that it attributable to RIMM having problems, but they gained share on Android which is good. Plus with Android, Google does not make as much as Apple when someone buys a phone with Android on it. Matter of fact, Google makes more money with people doing searches on iOS using Google than any phone using the Android OS, which is a big concern for Google going forward. Especially if Apple decided to lean people away from the Google offerings somehow...

    And when you look at the iPad, there isn't a compeitor besides maybe the Kindle Fire right now, and that isn't even close to what the iPad can do. The iPad is being used not just in home use, but in hospitals for staff, airplanes where cost cutting is to the point where to lighten the weight load, pilots on United will use them to replace manuals. And the list goes on...

    We're seeing Apple really transform so many industries here, and growing, that I think it's way too early to consider selling Apple stock. When Apple has trouble with the iPhone line that people switch to another OS or provider, or there is a new tablet out there that people want over the iPad, or if Apple misses the next big thing, I think that is when to sell this stock. But not now, when there is so much opportunity ahead of it...

    Dan

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  12. Apple is underowned by institutional investors by virtually every measure when compared to its weighting in the relevant S+P/R1000 indices.

    After all, it's not the gross number of investors that own a stock that's the right measure of 'ownership,' it's how much they collectively own. Needless to say, Apple is a much-owned retail stock as well.

    Not saying it wasn't a good time to take profits, but the argument listed above is flat-out wrong, and provably so.

    Love the site otherwise!

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  13. Congratulations for your wonderful investment.

    I know is very difficult to say errors but, could you tell us your worst investment? :)

    thz

    ReplyDelete
  14. On the institutional interest measure, we may be talking about different things. Institutions of all stripes - value and growth, active and passive, hedge funds and mutual funds - hold Apple. See this link for the stats:
    http://wire.kapitall.com/investment-idea/smart-moneys-favorite-stock-pick-apple-beats-wells-fargo/
    You may be right that the proportion of Apple stock held by institutions does not reflect its market value weight in the index, but no matter how you slice it, 70% of Apple stock is held by institutions and it looks it is held across a wider array of institutional investors than any other large cap stock.

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  15. Professor Damodaran,

    Did Tim Cook's recent sell-off of stock influence your decision in any way?

    Thank you!!

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi,
    This is an excellent written article, Thanks for yet another insightful post, as always!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Wow, this sounds so much like a full blown bull story like the Gold Bubble since 2009. I think Apple has just moved into bubble territory since it crossed $500... How much more upside it has left, i have no idea could it take out $1000? Why not since this is just the start of the bubble and one makes a lot of money before the bubble bursts .... 1999 for IT stocks, 2006-07 for BRIC stocks.

    Ironical, both gold & Apple have similar chart patterns, may be Apple currently is at a position where Gold was in 2010. It's been close to a year and a half that i think Gold moved into Bubble category. I have been on the wrong side since 2010 end, not sure how long will I be wrong.

    One think i can say from what i have learnt about markets :-

    When the whole world is on the same side, it's time to start thinking of moving on.

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  18. Your decision to sell is wise but the reason attached is kinda confusing to and less convincing....apple is at its peak and its only wiser to get out and look to invest in another potential apple stock...even if it appreciates from here the upside is capped upto $650-700 as the cow has been milked a lot....i want to know is there a price at which you would re-enter or you rather invest your money in next potential apple like investment

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  19. Wow, that makes you Professor 150-bagger! I doubt there are many of your kind out there. Now, you can leave behind the old pseudonym - Professor Deodorant :oD

    ReplyDelete
  20. Professor,

    You mentioned adding to equity in the beginning of the year because of the Implied ERP, would you be willing to share the levels at which you like equities and levels at which you don't? Thanks!

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  21. I am so glad I stopped by your blog today. I have had a nervous, itchy feeling about AAPL and now I know why! I purchased Apple back on the first of December, and I felt that the 50% increase over 4 months did not have anything to do with the companies valuation. You have cleared this up for me, and I too have sold, taking my 50% gain and looking for other investments. Thank You!!!

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  22. 36% CAGR pre tax returns! hats off!

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  23. I echo someone else's question/thought on here now that we know why you sold Apple, can we please get some insight into your mind on why you decided on Apple on that fateful day in April '97.
    Heck, there was no all-knowing Google back then and Jobs wasn't even heading Apple I think), so I can't imagine there was too much dissemination of information. Was it a 80% gut-feel (because of your love for all things apple) and 20% something else ? Love to get inside your head on this! :) Peace.

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  24. I think that there are three interesting questions in these comments that deserve a full fledged post. The first is about why I bought Apple in 1997. The second is about whether I am abandoning my intrinsic value principles by selling Apple even though the stock price is less than my intrinsic value. The third is a more general question of why you or I as investors should care about who else is holding shares in a company that you are invested in. So, let me work on putting together something halfway sensible and I will put it up.

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  25. 'You may be right that the proportion of Apple stock held by institutions does not reflect its market value weight in the index, but no matter how you slice it, 70% of Apple stock is held by institutions and it looks it is held across a wider array of institutional investors than any other large cap stock. '

    Dear Professor Damodaran,

    I have sat in on some of your lectures on valuation at various banks during my career and they are *always* great. But the above is simply not correct.

    For one thing, the avg large-cap stock is owned by 74% institutionally. So Apple has another 4% to go or $24Bn of buying just to catch-up [at current pricing].

    Secondly, your list talking about the 'top 50' mutual funds and hedge funds is by definition a very limited window, and even within that list only 18 of largest 50 funds have Apple as even a *Top Ten* holding![!!]

    You're disproving your own point - Apple is noticeably underowned by Inst'l investors.

    They should own ~4.4% or they are purposefully underweighting it relative to other LC stocks.

    I run a 9-figure portfolio, and I can say with firsthand experience about the dozens of smart value/growth managers, Pension funds, and mega family offices that refuse to buy it, or sold it hundreds of points ago and are suffering from anchor-bias. All run by very sharp people like yourself.

    Also, you are comparing apples and oranges [ha] again by comparing the # of funds owning Apple with the %ownership by institutions.

    Using your logic, if every equity fund in the world owned 1 share of Apple, sponsorship would have maxed out. I don't know why you have this bias, but it seems like a fairly obvious flaw in your logic even to the casual observer.

    If Apple had risen from $20 to $31 YTD, would you be making the same sell decision given your abandonment of intrinsic value principles? I posit you would not.

    best,

    ps Keep up the terrific work, and always looking fwd to your next book, my favorite one so far is Darkside of Valuation which was very helpful for analyzing small energy stocks.

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  26. aswath, i thought that "reasonable assumptions (8% revenue growth for 5 years)" in your earlier post was quite conservative. the company has introduced many new products (just this last q1 eps growth was 115.7% or 6.43 to 13.87) and is about to introduce several more in the next few years.last 5 years average ear was 64.9%. so assuming you come to the conclusion that it was a mistake to sell, can you make that 4th: ("that there are three interesting questions in these comments that deserve a full fledged post) should i consider buying it back and if so when ?

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  27. When is it "time ti fold em" with Priceline . If this issue continues it's meteoric climb , why shouldn't Apple?

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  28. AAPL make $1B per week, and growing. Giving out $20B for the year just slows down the rate they load profits, a little.
    At some point it's hard to find better ways to re-invest on this scale...
    AAPL itself is the best investment on the planet, so why not invest this access $ in themselves.
    but... it's your money...

    ReplyDelete
  29. I think you misunderstand my point. I don't have a problem with them returning $ 20 billion. In fact, I argued for an $80 billion cash return. It is their choice of dividends that I think has created a "mixed dividend clientele" problem for them..

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  30. Dear Prof,

    You would have grown immeasurably wiser (and maybe a tad older!:) from that day in '97 when you sat down and decided to buy Apple.
    Given that several different things have also changed (environment, accounting principles etc), would you mind interjecting your post-to-be (on why you picked Apple back then) with points on what you may have done differently now (if at all).

    That way, someone can learn of your thought processes then and now.

    Peace,

    ReplyDelete
  31. To me, my only concern with Apple is not their management and not the company but pressure from investors and at some point these investors who have held the stock for a long time want to get paid which is completely understandable.

    At this point I don’t know how Apple is going to turn the numbers quarter after quarter but I think the Apple television should push the company forward with growth for a couple years. Apple TV along with finally getting into the enterprise market and I see them moving in that direction with the iPad.

    Jobs was the only one who was stood between Apple dishing out a dividend payment. I see it the same way he does – it’s a bribe to hold the stock and to me, dividends only make sense when you’ve reached the top in growth and I don’t think Apple is there yet. I’d rather Apple say “we’re going to spend our $97 Billion in cash toward inventing a time machine” then dishing out dividends to investors.

    And then there is the ‘evil empire’ backlash that they could be facing where that brand loyalty they’ve always had can quickly vanish. Right now people love Apple because they make great products but it’s human nature to want to cheer for the underdog – Apple was always the underdog but not anymore and it’s going to be interesting see if the mainstream public still views them as a powerhouse innovator or just another ‘me too’ company in the future?

    I was reading Mark Zuckerberg’s newsletter on the SEC filing and he says many times that Facebook was not intended to be a company and Facebook is ran from a development perspective rather than a financial perspective. All technology companies need to understand this no matter how great their business is doing today and I’d rather see Apple being the one to lead innovation rather than just buying up their competitors. Innovation and creating demand for products that people ‘have to have’ leads to profits – not the other way around. I think Apple understands this but I’m not sure if investors do? I would hate to see investors treat Apple the same way they treated Microsoft when it comes to innovation but then Microsoft hasn’t exactly had a successful track record in this area where Apple has demonstrated proven success so hopefully investors will remember that and the momentum moves forward.

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  32. Apple's 'proven success' at innovation came from stealing GUI from Xerox Parc, from stealing the guts of the iPod from Rio, and from borrowing the look and feel of the iPhone from LG Prada which had already won design awards 10 months before the iPhone release.

    Long Apple,

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  33. Why would you sell all of it? Why not 50%? 75%?

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  34. The real reasons is :
    1. TAXES - as Brian explained
    Brian said...
    I'd suspect that the changing tax regime have something to do with your sale. Current capital gains are 15%, and will expire at the end of the year, being replaced with a 25% capital gains tax on January 1. (The extra 5% above what is advertised is explained here: http://dmarron.com/2012/01/24/capital-gains-taxes-are-going-up/).

    ReplyDelete
  35. Taxes were not the primary factor behind my decision but a secondary one. And it is not even my tax liability that I am worried about. On Apple, the tax bite from the dividend portion will be far smaller than it is in my investment in P&G. But my worry is a larger one. Next year's tax law change is going to create a shift in investing and I don't think that the market has factored this in yet in dividend paying stocks.... And the pain will be greater in stocks that have investors unused to getting dividends (like Apple).

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  36. Thanks for the article. I too sold Apple at 585 as 1)it might be better to leave out the double that everyone is hoping for (0.5 trillion to a trillion) than to keep the good gain in the stock 2)A leader (only company with a market cap above 0.5T) being always watched is prone to fall even for small mistakes
    I also believe Apple can go up, but not sure how far.

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  37. Surely, apple will go up, this is one of the fastest growing company in the world.

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  38. Your reasons for selling are sound. When everybody wants something,give it to them and then some.
    I wrote this piece here,I hope you enjoy it:
    http://contrariansmind.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/has-apple-reached-the-tipping-point/

    ReplyDelete
  39. Not good enough reasons for an intrinsic value investor for he sells only when he doesn't see value in the business. 13% discount in valuation (asuming valuation is reasonable and will hold) is not that bright either. Key is are you able to see / assess value for this business, viz, more and better products generating fcfe in the foreseeable future. If yes (either based on past records or some divine foresight) it makes sense to buy or hold; if not fold. Momentum, institutions, charters, bulls, bears...difficult to recognize them....if primary reason is to participate in business and it's profits. Would accept if it's been long since you are a shareholder and now it is increasingly difficult to see value (blame it on base effect or management or competition) and there are other opportunities.

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  40. Wow, Apple in '97, what a great buy.

    -European fan

    PS! I watch the webcasts of your corp. finance classes for fun.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Google and Apple are competing head-to-head in several overlapping markets. These include devices and operating systems, browsers, web advertising, applications stores, music, multimedia TV, and cloud computing.

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  42. I stand by my comments above. You'll regret this sale because it had nothing to do with fundamental analysis. The stock will see $800 or $900 within about six months, notwithstanding reduced earnings expectations, and still not be overvalued. Today it hit a new intraday trading high.

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  43. AD is a lovely man who in 1990 could explain CorpFin even to an ignoramus like me at Stern MBA, but who clearly doesn't really "know when to hold 'em." $673 today (I first bought in at $34) and I'll wager (in fact I am wagering) $800 before next summer.

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  44. Don't be so smug Anonymous... Apple is one supply chain disruption away from $200 a share. Much of apples profits rightfully belong to the workers who are working under late 19th century conditions. The riots in Taiwan are the first rumblings.

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  45. Apple was caught up in controversy regarding the online sales of music in the European Union where, as a single market, customers are free to purchase goods and services from any member state.

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  46. Its incredible to re-read this post in November with the price at 550! AD you have gotten the best of all worlds - an intrinsic guy with a strong gut and sense for market positioning ;-) See you in Mumbai in January - I'll be at the IAIP CFA conference

    ReplyDelete
  47. You made some decent points there. I looked on the internet for the issue and found most individuals will go along with your website.

    ReplyDelete
  48. At what level would you consider owning this stock again? Thanks.

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  49. Would be very interested in what you think of Apple today? Thanks for the great article as always.

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  50. Apples share price has increased from just 5 dollars in 1998 to over 500 today. I would say its time to fold them as it were.

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  51. Apple providing well featured tablets,which price was increased from just 5 dollars in 1998 to over 500 till today.It's a booming industry.

    ReplyDelete
  52. All your reasons to sell apples are valid.

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  55. Oh men we need to be real. Apple is just raising their own chair. They lunch new products that seems to give no new features at all. Well that's what I noticed for the last 2 quarters of 2012.

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  58. Thanks for posting this. Even us long time contrarians can use some reassurance once in a while that there are other rational people out there.
    Thank you, love the analysis.

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    ReplyDelete
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