As many of you have read in my postings, I am working on a book where I look at shaking up some of the fundamental assumptions that underlie modern finance. My first chapter on "what if nothing is risk free?" was posted about four weeks ago and you can still get to it by going to:
My second chapter builds on a theme that has been a bit of an obsession for me on risk premiums and how they have become more unstable, unpredictable and linked across markets. The paper titled,
A New Risky World Order: Unstable Risk Premiums - Implications for Practice, is now ready to download and you can get to it by clicking on the link below.
The paper is long (about 60 pages) but hopefully not verbose. A great deal of what I say in the paper, I have said before in my papers and posts on equity risk premiums. The difference in this paper is two fold.
- I expand my analysis to look at risk premiums in different markets - default spreads in bond markets and real asset premiums in real asset markets. In the process, I can examine how risk premiums in different markets have begun more moving together and how divergences across markets can be used to fine tune both investment and corporate financial decisions.
- I do present a template that can be used by practitioners to choose between the bewildering array of risk premium estimates that are out there. When should you use a current premium and when should you use a historical premium?
I am working on my third chapter of the book: What if nothing is liquid?, where I hope to look at what would happen to valuation and corporate finance practice, if markets essentially shut down. I hope I will have something interesting to say.