Thursday, September 27, 2012

The "dividend tax" cliff approaches: Implications for stocks

A great deal has been written about the "fiscal cliff" that US taxpayers, investors and companies are faced with at the end of this year. Put simply, all of the tax changes made in 2002 and 2003 expire at that time, and the tax code will, in large part, revert to what it was prior to those changes. I will leave it to others to debate the macro economic implications of going over the cliff but I want to focus on one "segment" of the code that has implications to valuation.

In 2003, the tax code was altered to bring the tax rate on dividend income down to 15%, to match the tax rate on capital gains. That was, in a sense, a revolutionary move, at least for the US, since dividends had been taxed much more heavily than capital gains for much of the previous century. I did write a paper in 2003 about the potential implications of the tax law change for businesses that you can read. In effect, I argued that the tax change would have a positive effect on stock prices, that the effect would be greater for "high" dividend paying stocks than for non-dividend paying stocks and that corporate dividend policy would be altered by the change. Now that there is the possibility that the law will be reversed, it is time to revisit the issue.

Dividends, Expected Returns and Stock Prices: Why taxes matter...
To understand the impact of investor taxes on dividends, let's begin by looking at how  you would price stocks in a world where interest income, dividend income and capital gains are not taxed. Let's assume that the risk free rate is 1.5% and that stocks are collectively paying a dividend yield of 2%. To induce you, as a risk averse investor, to invest in stocks, you would need to be offered a premium (at least on an expected basis) over the risk free rate. Let's assume that you would demand a premium of 4.5%, after personal taxes, to shift from the riskfree asset to risky equities. Thus, you would need to earn a 6% return (1.5%+4.5%), after personal taxes, to invest in stocks. Since this is a world with no taxes, your pre-tax expected return would also by 6%; with a dividend yield of 2%, the expected price appreciation on stocks would have to be 4%.

Now, introduce a uniform tax rate of 15% on interest income, dividend income and capital gains into this world. Since you need to earn 6% after taxes, you would need to earn 7.06% before taxes:
Expected pre-tax return = Expected after-tax return/ (1- Uniform tax rate) = 6%/ (1-.15) = 7.06%
Thus, if stocks continue to pay a 2% dividend, the expected price appreciation would need to 5.06%. The higher required return would mean that stock prices would have to drop, relative to what they were in a world with no taxes. With the existing tax law, we are close to this tax regime (with the only difference being that interest income is taxed at a higher tax rate). This is close to the current tax regime.

Let's now change to law to reflect what the tax rate will be on January 1, 2013, if we do revert back to pre-2003 levels. The tax rate on dividends, for individual investors, will revert back to the ordinary income tax rate. At the margin, for unmarried (married - joint filing) investors generating more than $ 85,650 ($142,700) and  in income, that rate will be close to 35% (counting just Federal taxes and incorporating the additional taxes that the new health care law will impose on dividends and other investment income) and approach 40% for those with income levels exceeding $178,650 ($217,450). The tax rate on long term capital gains will also go up, but only to the 20% rate that prevailed prior to 2003. If companies continue with a dividend yield of 2% and the price appreciation stays at the 5.06%, investors will earn a much lower after-tax return:
After-tax return with pre-2003 tax rates = 2%(1-.40) + 5.06% (1-.20) = 5.25%
If investors risk preferences have not changed, they will have to want to continue to earn 6% after taxes, but the pre-tax return would have to increase to compensate for the higher taxes. In fact, if we assume that the dividend yield stays fixed at 2%, we can solve for the required price appreciation
2% (1-.40) + X (1-.20) = 6%
Solving for X, we get a required pre-tax price appreciation of 6% and a required pre-tax return of 8%. That would translate into a significant drop in stock prices.

Making it real: The dividend cliff and the S&P 500
To make this less abstract, let's work with some real numbers. At the start of every month, I back out the expected return on stocks from the level of the index (S&P 500) and expected cash flows. At the start of September 2012, when the S&P 500 was at 1406.58, I computed an expected return on stocks of 7.30% (yielding an equity risk premium of 5.75% over the risk free rate of 1.55%). This expected return is what investors are demanding on a pre-tax basis on stocks. Since the current dividend yield on the S&P 500 is about 2.01%, the expected price appreciation on a pre-tax basis is 5.29%. Since both dividends and capital gains are taxed at 15%, under the pre-cliff tax law, the post tax return is 6.21%:
After-tax return in September 2012 with current tax law = 2.00% (1-.15) + 5.29% (1-.15) = 6.21%
Now, let's assume that investors will continue to demand this after-tax return in 2013, that the tax laws revert back to pre-2003 levels and that companies continue to maintain a dividend yield of 2.01%:
2.01% (1-.40) + Expected pre-tax price appreciation (1-.20) = 6.21%
The expected pre-tax price appreciation would have to be 6.25% and the required return on a pre-tax basis would have to be 8.26% on the S&P 500, yielding an equity risk premium of 6.71% over the riskfree rate of 1.55%. Holding the cash flows the same and changing the equity risk premium to 6.71% yields a value of 1201.22 for the S&P 500, a drop of about 14.60% in the index from current levels. If you don't agree with the assumptions I have made, not a big deal. I have attached the spreadsheet that I used and you can compute your own estimate.

Differential impact: High dividend versus non-dividend paying stocks
Note, though, that the effect of the reversal in the tax law will not be uniform, since every company does not have a dividend yield of 2%. Companies with high dividend yields, that continue to pay those dividends, will see expected returns increase more and stock prices drop by a more significant margin. In the graph below, I have compute the percentage change in stock prices you can expect in stocks with dividend yields of 0% to 4%.

Note that the stocks with the 4% dividend yield, holding all else constant, will see stock prices drop by 18%,, whereas the stocks with the 0% dividend yield will see a price drop of only 7%.  Again, you can use the spreadsheet and alter my assumptions, if you so desire, and compute the effect on any individual stock.

The Weak Links
This analysis suggests that a sharp correction is ahead for stocks collectively and especially so for high dividend paying stocks. It is, however, based on a set of assumptions about tax law and markets that may not be correct.   So, what are the weakest links in this analysis?
1. There is no chance that the fiscal cliff will become reality: This is not the first time that we have faced the possibility of the tax laws reverting back to pre-2003 levels. At the end of 2011, faced with the possibility, Congress and the administration pushed off the day of reckoning at the last moment. It is possible that faced with the catastrophic consequences of going over the cliff, Congress will find a way to avoid it again, but is it guaranteed? Having seen the political dysfunction at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue over the last decade, I am not as confident as others may be that common sense will prevail and that the cliff will be avoided.
2. Not all investors pay taxes on investment income: In my analysis, I used the tax rates on wealthy individual investors to make my assessment, but tax rates vary widely across investors. There are two critiques that can be mounted. The first is that about 60-70% of stocks are held by non-individuals: mutual funds, pension funds and corporations and the tax rates that these investors may not be affected (or at least not as much) by the change in the tax law. The second is that companies that pay high dividends attract investors who like those high dividends and it is possible that these investors make less income and face less of a hit from the change in the tax law.  Note, though, that even if we factor in these investors, the basic analysis still holds but the impact will be lightened. In fact, one way to alter the analysis is to take a weighted average tax rate across all investors in the market, which would buffer the impact. The graph below estimates the effect on the market, stocks with a dividend yield of 4% and stocks with a dividend yield of 0% of assuming lower tax rates in the post-cliff period.
3. Investors may already have built in the expectation that tax laws will change into current stock prices: To the extent that the fiscal cliff has been in the news and widely reported, it is possible that the market has already incorporated the possibility of it coming to fruition into stock prices and the expected return. I would have been inclined to believe this if I had seen the equity risk premium climb, and stock prices drop, over the course of the year, but they have not. In fact, we started the year with a much higher equity risk premium of 6.04% and have seen the premium drift down to 5.75%.
4. Companies may change their dividend policy: I did predicate my analysis on companies maintaining their dividends at 2012 levels, even if the tax law changes to tax dividends more highly in 2013. In fact, if companies were completely flexible, they could stop paying dividends and largely nullify the impact of the tax law change. History suggests that this is unlikely. If there is a word that best describes dividends, it is that they are "sticky", i.e.. that companies are reluctant to change dividends and especially to cut them. In fact, the 2003 law did not to lead to a surge in dividends (though a few companies pay special dividends in the immediate aftermath) and I don't think that a reversal of the law will lead to a sudden reassessment of dividend policy.

Bottom line:  I may be overly pessimistic, but the dividend cliff scares me and I am planning for the eventuality that the tax code will change drastically on January 1, 2013. I am and will continue pruning my portfolio, shifting my money from large dividend-paying US stocks to non-dividend paying or low-dividend paying foreign stocks. I won't go overboard and sell short/ buy puts on high dividend paying stocks. After all, the dividend tax effect is one of many forces that will affect equity markets over the next few months and it is possible that one of these effects will drown out the tax effect.

105 comments:

baughman said...

Lots of papers show that companies substituted dividends for repurchases around the 2003 tax cuts. Surely the expiration of the 2003 tax cuts will have the opposite effect; companies will substitute repurchases for dividends.

I wish the term dividend yield would die. It is completely irrelevant. It ought to be replaced by the payout yield, which is much more economically meaningful (http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/4622289).

This arbitrary tradition in which dividends are sticky and repurchases are not is silly.

Aswath Damodaran said...

I agree with you on the generic point that we should talk about cash returned (dividends + buybacks) when we talk about dividend policy. In the context of taxes, though, we have to separate the two and I am afraid that the facts don't bear you out when it comes the 2003 plan. The rise in the number of companies paying dividends and in total dividends paid out was surprisingly small.

baughman said...

Good point. For whatever reason I thought the literature was more conclusive. These are good articles:

http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/120/3/791.abstract
http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/20486672

Isn't it just a matter of time before companies use the tax efficiency of payout (i.e. utilization of share repurchases) as a competitive advantage to increase demand for their stock, and hence lower cost of equity? Aren't any of these companies bold enough to break the tradition of inefficient dividends and replace them with (equally "sticky" if that's their intent) repurchases?

Aswath Damodaran said...

I wish companies were more responsive and flexible when it comes to dividend policy but I have found that inertia is the strongest force in corporate finance. Getting companies to change dividend policy is a really slow process... Eventually, it will happen (and it has in the US, with the new companies that have come into the market)

Anonymous said...

Interesting. In Australia the top personal marginal tax rate is 48% and kicks on at around $180k. None of this filing jointly stuff meaning opportunities to income split are limited (unless you can divert profit share from a business via a discretionary trust to your spouse and other family members).

We have concessional tax on capital gains and imputation on dividends. The dividends are franked to the extent the company has paid tax and the recipient receives a franking credit equal to the company tax paid.

So corporate tax is a pre-payment of personal tax. However foreign companies can only use franking credits to offset dividend withholding tax so not sure of the impact of this for marginal investor.

Not sure if an S Corp in the USA achieves a similar outcome ie income passed through to owner.

Hamish Blair
Leadenhall.

Andrew said...

Are foreign stock dividends treated the same as domestic for US tax purposes? Or could we perhaps see increased flow to international equities that pay relatively higher dividends?

Neil said...

"I wish companies were more responsive and flexible when it comes to dividend policy…"

Obviously, you live off of your salary rather than dividends. Retirees often depend on their dividends to pay their bills each year and don't want to invest in companies that suddenly cut them off. It's the younger people who aren't going spend their money for another 30 years that focus on capital gains. At least that's what my grandfather told me back in 1976. Of course, he probably never heard of the efficient market hypothesis. He thought that market sentiment could be very pessimistic for years at a time and depress stock prices more than the companies' ability to produce income. Looking at market valuation metrics in 1999 compared to 1982 and 1947, I think he might have a point.

JK said...

Professor Damodaran,

In your post you detail how taxes affect the returns on the risk asset; isn't it also true that they affect the returns on the risk-free asset? And, therefore, the necessary returns from the risk asset do not increase quite so much?

My understanding of this is imperfect, so my apologies if this is a silly point.

-JK

Anonymous said...

I have no way of knowing how much, so this may be a moot point but would it matter that a portion of the idividuals that hold these divedend paying stock hold them in IRAs or other such vehicles effect your thoughts?

William

Aswath Damodaran said...

Neil,
If you want to live off your dividends, you should buy bonds or preferred stock. There are plenty of income producing options out there. Equity is always a claim on whatever is left over after your other claims have been met. If earnings are unpredictable, you cannot afford to pay dividends and survive as a healthy company. In your grandfather's day, there were regulated monopolies (phone companies, power companies) that could afford to pay high dividends but those days are gone.

Aswath Damodaran said...

Dividends received by US taxpayers on any stock - foreign or domestic - will be affected by the new tax law. So, buying high dividend paying foreign stocks is not going to get you off the hook.

Aswath Damodaran said...

Dividends received by US taxpayers on any stock - foreign or domestic - will be affected by the new tax law. So, buying high dividend paying foreign stocks is not going to get you off the hook.

baughman said...

Neil,

You can create your own homemade "dividend" by clicking the "sell" button on your brokerage account. Instantly, you will have cash.

There is no difference between this method and an actual cash dividend distribution aside from a nominal trading commission and bid ask spread. If your trade is large enough, the commission becomes arbitrarily small.

JP Saldarriaga said...

Dear Aswarth,

Can you comment on which other factors that may drown out the tax effect you have in mind specifically when you wrote that last paragraph? Thanks!

HelicalZz said...

I think you may be overly pessimistic, mostly for the reasons you outlined yourself in point 2. Not all investors pay taxes on investment income. Also the lack of suitable income generating alternatives may force many to 'grin and bear it' (even more than they are now).

One thing that would make me more concerned however is if there was a substantial spread trade into dividend paying equities i.e. low cost credit / leverage used to buy such securities. But I don't know if that is the case or not.

I am also concerned that a tax increase would encourage more of a shift to buybacks vs. dividends. In theory this is fine, but in practice buybacks are to infrequently value generating (too often a poor capital allocation). I'd love to see the SEC require returns on buybacks (10 years?) be part of the 10-K report. [Asde: I'd love to see you blog sometime on financial rules / requirements you might like to see]

Anonymous said...

I did not see an answer on the IRA/401K/403B/etc ownership vs taxable accounts. In my own case, over 90% of my dividend payments are in IRAs.

Given the high ownership of mutual funds, index funds, etc in tax advantaged accounts, don't you believe the affect might be lower than your examples above?

Gene

Anonymous said...

What about this? Rational people knew that the tax rates brought in by Bush (while he was increasing spending faster than Carter, Reagan or Clinton ever did) wouldn't last forever. In fact, it's surprising they lasted this long. So they didn't mechanistically bid up stock prices in 2003 and 2004 when the change went into effect (and I doubt anyone can tell with precision what caused price changes in either direction at that time), except to pay a modestly higher price to reflect a few years of the tax savings. And now the reverse can happen. But to a small extent. Investors weren't suckered by the Bush tax cuts.

Anonymous said...

Hi prof,


Its an eye opening article but theres a silly question. How does the higher ERP translate to lower stock value? I see your point that the required return on the s&p example will increase to 8.26% on a pre tax basis but don't get how it will translate to lower s&p value. Appreciate your explanation. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Keep in mind that for fortune 100 companies, their majority shareholders..pension, endowments and mutual funds, don't pay tax, as neither do IRAs.

BruceM

Aswath Damodaran said...

A higher ERP causes lower stock prices the same way that higher interest rates cause lower bond prices.. a higher required return means that you pay less today for the same investment.

Anonymous said...

Professor,
Following out the dividend cliff thinking further, do you think that in contrast to high dividend paying equities, that REITs will become more attractive relatively speaking following the changes in tax law?

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Brian Murray said...

Excellent analysis Professor Damodaran.

Regardless if the effect creates and instantly visible drop, or it is already 'baked-in' to some degree, values have and will be affected non the less.

Your analysis may have implications on smaller business valuations as well, regarding the tax affecting of PTEs. Please read my post (which references your post) titled Are We Tax Affecting The Wrong Earnings at wbvb.blogspot.com. Your comments (pro OR con) would be much appreciated!

baughman said...

Are you familiar with Clemens Sialm's 2009 AER paper entitled "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing"? It's of my favorites.

http://www2.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty/clemens.sialm/sialm09.pdf

Eric said...

Professor Damodaran,

Why do you hold dividend yield at a constant 2% in your analysis? As stock prices fall, dividend which are usually set at a dollar amount and are "sticky" will remain the same. Because of this, dividend yield will increase as stock prices fall.

I am under the impression that this increased yield will cushion the fall in stock prices somewhat. Would this lead to smaller correction in the overall market?

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Marc P said...

I just read your article on dividend tax. I am wondering whether you missed a point when dealing with tax impact on valuation: the return on public money. I see two cases:

(i) If a change in the legal structure (for instance) of the company leads to a higher tax bill for the company, the discounted additional tax payments can be directly removed from the company value (the few millions added to the state/federal budget gets "diluted" in the whole economy and have negligible impact on the company)
(ii) if a law change implies higher taxes for all companies in the US, it is not "diluted" any more and the significant money added to the government budget can have an impact on every company (depending, of course, of the return on government investment). If the company gets its "fair" share of the value generated by the investment (through better infrastructure for instance), it has no impact on its valuation

So, my understanding is, at the end, that impacting 100% of the discounted additional taxes (again, in the case of a general law impacting all companies) to the value of the company requires one of these two assumptions:

- the return on public investment is 0% (money is basically lost), which does not seem to be in line with academic research (and common sense)
- the company gets allocated 0% of the value created by the public investment. Which is unlikely as well (even though its is unlikely to be 100% neither)

Of course, it does not seem easy to compute which % the company will get back on its taxes, but it should imply that, in case of an increase in a tax rate for all companies, the fall in share prices should be lower than the value of the discounted taxes. Would this reasoning make sense?

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PPatel - London - Analyst said...

Hi Aswath,

Thank you for discussing the topic - this focus on the dividend tax seems to be gaining alot of traction recently - Having listened to conference calls by the BB banks recently their market strategists seem to be displaying greater focus on the issue than that paid in the press at the moment. As the "search for yield" theme has been extremely successful over the last couple of years relatively - it could be dangerous to ignore the tax cut expiration.

I also along with ERIC who posted before me would like to ask you to elborate on the assumption to keep yield constant - as yield is a fuction of price as the price drops the yield will surely increase and you do not include the impact in your analysis.

I am not sure whether this will have a big impact but I also believe that this would cussion the fall or the sell off in the market to reach the same risk premium we currently recieve.

Many Thanks again for the great blog - its a great learning tool

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Financial Directory said...

It would be a ver very bad idea to have the tax on dividends increase from 15% to 35% or 40%. Its a real killer for those investing in dividend stocks.

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S Ballard said...

Aswarth, an intersting topic. Thanks. As an overseaso observer could you suggest what you beleive will be (if any) the impact of a dividend tax policy change on the relationship between equities and corporate bonds. Of late we have saeen a significant pickup in interest surrounding (historically cheap) debt-funded shareholder-friendly initiatives; debt being used to fund to special dividends to shareholders. What do you think the trend will be once we have looked - or stepped - over the fiscal cliff in January?

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I agree with you, Aswath. These new implications will put a great impact on the business of dividend stocks. The companies have to modify their existing dividend policies to comply with the new tax rules.

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