Thursday, September 1, 2016

The School Bell Rings! It's Time for Class!

As most teachers do, I mark time in academic rather than in calendar years and as September dawns, it is New Year's eve for me and a new class is set to begin. In just under a week, on September 7, 2016, I will walk into a classroom and face up to a roomful of students, not quite ready for summer to end, and start teaching, as I have every year since 1984. This semester, I will be back to teaching Valuation to MBAs at Stern, and as I have in semesters past, I invite you to join me on this journey, as we look at the mix of art, science and magic that makes valuation such a fascinating discipline.

Class Philosophy
I have always believe that to teach a class well, you have to start with a story and that the class is an extended serialization of the story. I also believe that to teach well, you have to, at least over time, make that story your own and mold the class to reflect it. In fact, the valuation class that I will be teaching this Fall has its seeds in the very first valuation class that I taught in 1986, but the differences reflect not only how much the world has changed since then, but also how my own thinking on valuation has evolved. The class remains a work in progress, where each time I teach it, I learn something new as well as recognize how much I have left to learn.

I could give you an extended essay on what this class is about, but I would repeating what I said at the start of the Fall 2015 semester in this post. In short, I said this class is not an extended accounting class (where you forecast entire financial statements for extended periods), or a modeling class (where you become an Excel Ninja) or a theory class (since there is so little of it in  valuation to begin with). Instead, here are the broad themes that underlie this class, all captured in the picture below:

If you find this picture a little daunting, I did do a Google talk that encapsulated these themes into about an hour-long session. 

In particular, this class is less about the tools and techniques of valuation and more about developing a foundation that you can use to build your own investment philosophy. I know that faith is a word that is seldom used and often viewed with suspicion by many in the valuation community, but it is at the heart of this class, both in terms of how you build up faith in your own capacity to value assets and businesses and how you hold on to that faith when the market price moves away from your value.  Since I still struggle on both of these fronts, I cannot give you a template for success but I will be open about my own insecurities both about my own valuations and about markets.

Class Structure
Since my objective in the class is that by the end of it, you should be able to attach a number to just about any asset, I will roam the spectrum. I will start with the basics of intrinsic value, partly because it is where I am most comfortable and partly because it provides me with ways of dealing with other approach. The mechanics of estimating discount rates, cash flows, growth and terminal value are not just simple, but easily mechanized. It is the specifics that we will wrestle with in this class:

  • On risk free rates, usually the least troublesome and more easily obtained input in valuation, we will talk about why risk free rates vary across currencies, what to do about currencies that have negative risk free rates and whether normalizing risk free rates (as many practitioners have taken to doing) is a good idea or a bad one.
  • On risk premiums and discount rates, we will wrestle with questions of what risks should and should not be incorporated into discount rates and the different methods of bringing them in. In the process, we will examine how best to estimate equity risk premiums and default spreads, and why even if you don't like betas or portfolio theory, you should should still be able to estimate discount rates and do intrinsic valuation.  
  • On cash flows, we will focus on why accounting inconsistencies (on dealing with R&D, leases and other items) can lead to misstated earnings and how to fix those inconsistencies, examine what should and should not be included in reinvestment (capital expenditures and working capital) and what to do about stock based compensation.
  • On growth, we will start with the easy cases (where historical earnings growth is a good predictor of future growth) but quickly move on to more difficult cases (of companies in transition) and to what some view as impossible cases (like estimating growth in a start-up)>
  • On terminal value, the big number in every DCF,  that can very quickly hijack otherwise well-done valuations, we will develop simple rules for keeping the number in check and put to sleep many myths surrounding it.
We will apply intrinsic valuation to value companies across the life cycle, in different sectors and across different markets. We will value small and large companies, private and public, developed and emerging and discuss how to value movie franchises (like Star Wars), phenomena (Pokemon Go) and sports teams. We will talk about why start ups can and should be valued in the face of daunting uncertainty and how probabilistic tools (simulations and decision trees) can help.

About half way through the class, we will turn our attention to pricing assets/businesses, where rather than build up to a value from a company's fundamentals, we price it, based on how the market is pricing similar companies. Put simply, we will shine a light on the practice of using pricing multiples (PE, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales) and comparable companies not with the intent of improving how it is done. We will also talk about why, even when you are careful and take care of the details, your pricing of a company can be very different form its value.

In the last segment of the class, we will stretch our valuation muscles by talking about how option pricing models can sometime be used to estimate the additional value in a business, such as undeveloped reserves for a natural resource company or expansion potential for a young growth firm, and sometimes to value equity in deeply distressed companies. We will close by looking at acquisition valuation, where good sense seems to be in short supply, and how understanding value can be critical to corporate managers.

Want to sit in?
If you are intrigued or interested, you are welcome to sit in on the class (online and unofficially). While my immediate attention will be reserved for the Stern MBAs who will be registered in this class, you will have access to all of the resources that they do, starting with the lectures but also extending to lecture notes, quizzes/exams and even emails. The bad news is that I will be unable to grade your work or give you a certificate of completion. The good news is that the price is right. There are three ways in which you can join the class:

  1. My website: The most comprehensive and most updated center of all things related to this class at this link. You will find the webcasts, lecture notes, past exams, reading and even the emails I send on this class here.
  2. iTunes U: Just as I am not an Excel Ninja, my capacity to deal with html is primitive and my website's design reflects that lack of sophistication. If you prefer more polish, you can try the iTunes U app in the Apple app store. It is a free app that you can download and install on your Apple device. Once you have it installed, click on the add course and enter the enroll code FER-SFJ-AKA. Like magic, the class should pop up on your shelf. If you don't have an Apple device, you can get to the course on your computer using this link. If you have an Android device, you can use a workaround by downloading this app first. Like all things Apple, the set up is amazing and easy to work with.
  3. YouTube: The problem with the first two choices is that they presuppose that you don't have a broadband constraint, perhaps a phone internet connection or worse. My suggestion is that you use the YouTube playlist that I have created for this class at this link. The nice thing about YouTube is that it adjusts the image quality to your connection speed. So, it should work in almost any setting.
Since I have made this offer for almost 20 years now, predating the MOOC boom and bust, I can offer some suggestions. First, it is a lot of work to watch two 80-minute lectures a week, try your hand out at working through actual valuations and finish the class in fifteen weeks, if you have other things going on in your life (and who does not?). My suggestion is that you cut yourself some slack and take more time, since the materials will stay up for at least a year after the class ends. Second, watching a lecture online for almost an hour and a half can be painful and for those of you who find the pain unbearable, I do have an alternative. A couple of years ago, I created an online version of this class, shrinking each 80-minute session into 10-15 minute sessions and this class is also available on my website at this link, on iTunes U at this link and on YouTube. Third, whichever version of the class you take will stick more if you pick a company and value it and even more, if you keep doing it. 

The End Game
I would love to tell you that I live a life of serenity and that I am sharing for noble reasons, but that would not be true. I am sharing my class for the most selfish of all reasons. I am a performer (and every teacher is) and what performer does not wish for a bigger audience? If I am going to prepare and deliver a class, would I not rather have thirty thousand people watch the class than three hundred. If you get something of value from this class, and you feel the urge to repay me, I will make the same suggestion that I did last year. Learning is one of those rare resources that is never diminished by sharing. So, please pass it on to someone else! See you in class!

  1. Entry Page for the Valuation Spring 2016 (on my website)
  2. Webpage for the Valuation Spring 2016 class webcasts (on my website)
  3. iTunes U for the Valuation Spring 2016 class (Enroll code on device: FER-SFJ-AKA)
  4. YouTube Playlist for the Valuation Spring 2016 class
  5. Webpage for Valuation Online class (short sessions)
  6. iTunes U for the Valuation Online class (short sessions)
  7. YouTube for the Valuation Online class (short sessions)


Anonymous said...

My biggest fear is that someday you will announce your retirement.

I pray that you never retire.

If you do so, at least I hope you keep writing books.

I love your work.

Aaron Simumba said...

Thank you very much Prof Damodaran. I came across your work in 2013 for the very first time. Since then I have followed your work religiously. In the process I have learnt a lot and I have developed a much more pragmatic view of finance and valuation.I look forward to follow through this class like the others that have passed.

fifegalley said...

I really enjoyed your Google Tech Talk on valuation. I also shared it with my parents, and they enjoyed it as well.

On the practical side, you outline a clear framework for thinking about valuation, which was instrumental in helping me negotiate a job offer at a (very) early stage startup. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Great stuff, Prof! Keep up the good work as always you do. Thank you.

A question: I know you also have a keen interest in seeing the disruption in education. I have wondered though whether it will ever happen. To drive the point, you have rightly mentioned that you won't be able to grade and more importantly give a certificate of completion for the course. While knowledge is no doubt gained, nothing is posted on the candidate's CV. In these circumstances, how will the candidate be able to find a suitable employment? Same is true with every other subject that is offered in universities. Unless one pays up big dollars, a good CV cannot be created. Where's the disruption?

Isn't this a sorry situation for someone who has gained knowledge but not degree?

Ksmith said...

Amazing thank you - shared

Anonymous said...

Please value Phillips 66 in your ongoing class

Dave said...

There is always a story and there is always a price and what does the price say about the story? McDonald's (MCD) pays a 3% dividend, that looks really interesting in this near zero percent savings environment. But is the market price of McDonald's (currently $116.92) a fair valuation. When I run the numbers and I give MCD a growth rate of 1% I get a share price value of $67.21, if I bump up the growth rate to 5% I get a value per share of $87.75. MCD has had nearly zero growth over the past five years and the market is giving MCD a growth rate of 9.5% over the next five years.
Knowing how to construct the numbers (thank you Dr. Damodaran!) gives me an indication of what story Mr. Market is giving me and I find the story too rich for me so I am passing on MCD, even if the new CEO is very good for the company, I find it hard to believe he can grow MCD nearly 10% a year over the next five year.
Even though I am disappointed in not getting the 3% dividend I am happy to know I would be paying too high a price to get that 3% dividend.
Thanks again Dr. Damodaran!