Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Market Meltdown

This has been a horrendous week for markets. As markets collapse globally, and doomsday scenarios are envisioned, it is time to take a step back and assess where we are.
1. Equity indices are down about 8-9% for the week in the United States and more in some emerging markets. The S&P 500 is down almost 20% for the year, a bad year by most standards but not quite a catastrophe (yet). 
2. The damage to equities has been uneven. The most pain has been inflicted in financial service companies (banks and investment banks). The decline in the rest of the market is far more muted.
3. While fear and panic are in the air in financial markets, the real economy, other than housing, has held up fairly well so far.
I do not know what tomorrow will bring, but if you have bragged about being a "contrarian", now is the time to put your money where your mouth is....

1 comment:

Vijay said...

Dear Sir,
I find your blog posts ( and online lectures on valuation) insightful. I also gained a lot from your book Investment Fables.
Sir, could you please share your opinion on the news of the derivatives bubble that has been doing rounds recently ? Will the low interest rates worldwide (China, USA, Japan) fuel this derivatives bubble further?